Elections results

The results of Brazil’s municipal elections can give us some insight on Brazilian politics nowadays.
First of all, to understand the dynamics of the political process in this country, we have to think local.
Some of the political alliances going on the major Brazilian cities do not obey the same criteria all over the country. In some cities, opposition parties joined together with the government party just to win the election. Parties that are together in one city are on opposite sides in other cities.
One of the reasons for that is that very few political parties in Brazil have a clear ideology to separate them. Actually, they will do whatever it takes to win supporters, doesn’t matter where the support comes from. That is a long and bad tradition in our political life.
The best example of this is the very good results in this election of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party or PMDB (center left). It is the largest party in Brazil, and has never left the government side since the first free elections in 89. It is always in the government, always bargaining support for the control of ministries, state owned companies and pension funds.
However, these elections can give us some perspective for the presidential election in 2010.
Let’s see the results in the 3 biggest, richest and most important cities in the political scenario: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, all 3 in Brazilian South East region, the most developed in the country.
In São Paulo, the dispute was among:
Geraldo Alckmin, from Social-Democrat Party (PSDB, center left), former presidential candidate in 2006 and former governor of the State;
Gilberto Kassab, from the Democrats (DEM, center right), actual mayor of São Paulo
Marta Suplicy, from the Workers Party (PT, left), former mayor of São Paulo and former minister of president Lula’s government;
The DEM and PSDB have always been political allies since the Fernando Henrique Cardoso years, and the opposition force against PT. The city government of Gilberto Kassab was actually composed by members of the 2 parties, and the candidacy of Kassab was supported by the governor of São Paulo, José Serra, a big name in PSDB.
Serra was the presidential candidate of PSDB in the 2002 elections, when Lula won for the first time. In 2006 Geraldo Alckmin forced PSDB to accept his name as candidate, replacing José Serra who was leading the polls by at least the double of points.
Alckmin lost and Lula won his second term, despite all the corruption scandals in his government.
Alckmin again moved against José Serra to launch his own candidacy to the city hall, breaking the alliance with DEM.
He lost the bet, and so did Marta Suplicy, whose administration left the city’s finances in ruins.
Now Kassab is the elected mayor and his name is stronger then ever to dispute São Paulo state government in 2010.
In Belo Horizonte, the story is different. The governor of Minas Gerais state, Aécio Neves is from PSDB. The mayor of Belo Horizonte, Fernando Pimentel, is from PT, Mr. Lula’s party. The two of them decided to support a third candidate, Mr. Márcio Lacerda from the Socialist Party (PSB, left). What happened here was a frustrated political experience. There has always been this idea among the leftist intellectuals and media in Brazil that PSDB and PT should be together, and that the DEM is actually the enemy to be fought, because of their right wing philosophy. If this project in Belo Horizonte worked out as the two hugely popular Neves and Pimentel were thinking, that could be a road to the presidential election in 2010, with Aécio Neves of course leading the way. Well, electors did not buy it.
The victory that was certain for Lacerda in the first round. A second round happened and Lacerda finally won, but that alliance between PT and PSDB doesn't look so good anymore.
In Rio de Janeiro, President Lula and PT had a tough time. Some 4 different candidates where from the government’s base. They chose to support Marcelo Crivella from PRB (left), a party created by an evangelical church. Lula’s vice-president belongs to that same party. Crivella lost, and the second round in Rio was disputed by Fernando Gabeira from the Green Party (PV), a former guerrilla member (seen in the movie Four Days in September) and Eduardo Paes, former PSDB and now by PMDB.
Paes has been a fierce critical of PT when in opposition, but asked for the support of President Lula in his campaign.
Even with the victory of Paes, Gabeira has become a strong name in Rio. Despite his past as a member of urban guerrilla has become a sensed and honest political, admired by his pairs and by most of the educated elite from Rio. Despite his huge popularity, President Lula was not able to transfer that asset to his comrades. PT didn’t grow after this election, and worst of all, there is no viable name to replace Lula at the presidential election in 2010. Lula suggested himself the name of Dilma Roussef, also a former guerrilla member and now a Minister of his government, but the electorate is not responding to that suggestion. Let’s hope he will not fall in a bolivarianist temptation for a third term as president.
By the opposition, as the plans of Aécio Neves and Geraldo Alckmin did fail in this election, the name of José Serra is stronger than ever to be the next president of Brazil.

Crisis

The huge financial crisis turning stock markets and the banking sector upside down all over the world has been discussed and analyzed hundreds of times by now.
In Brazil, the leftist intellectuals had actually inundated the media with stupid statements like capitalism is over, neo-liberalism is dead and so on.
Well, farmers are still growing crops, industries still working, people still consuming. Capitalism is not dead.
I believe, like Delfim Neto, a former Brazilian Economy Minister, said: Capitalism actually brought us from the Middle Ages to the Internet Age in what? 150 years?
Of course there was trouble on the way, and there will be more trouble on the way, but the system learns from its own mistakes. Government intervention will be needed now and then to avoid (better) or to repair (worst) those mistakes.
There is no free market without confidence; there is no confidence without respect. Government should be there to assure everybody is being respected.
Brazil will be affected, like the whole world will be in the next couple of years, but because of the BRICS, the United States lost all that power to create a world disaster like in 29.
We’ll not grow as fast as we thought, but we’ll move on.